In its first Future Energy Scenarios report, the National Energy System Operator (NESO) has called for bold and sustained action on clean energy both now and beyond 2030 to unlock the benefits of net zero.
In the years ahead, NESO expects electricity demand to grow from 290TWh today to potentially as much as 785TWh by 2050, making the delivery of clean electricity, bioenergy, hydrogen and energy storage solutions imperative, along with homes and businesses embracing low carbon heating and adopting energy efficiency measures.
In the report, NESO maps out three potential pathways to reaching net zero, with varying degrees of reliance placed on electrification, hydrogen, bioenergy, and consumer engagement, though all lead to a sizeable reduction in annual emissions – potentially having to around 200 megatonnes of CO2 a year over the next decade, before falling to 100 megatonnes of CO2 by 2040 – as long as the right infrastructure is in place.
So, how does hydrogen factor into these pathways? NESO sees low carbon hydrogen production for energy increasing from pretty much nothing today to between 98 to 325TWh by 2050, with delivery contingent on there being the enabling infrastructure in place at the right time.
One of the pathways is hydrogen evolution which sees fast progress for hydrogen in industry and heat helping meet net zero. A national hydrogen network will be in place with widespread levels of access. Some consumers will have hydrogen boilers but primarily, heat is electrified, with low levels of consumer engagement in general within this pathway.
Hydrogen is also used for some heavy goods vehicles through this pathway, though electric vehicle uptake is strong. Another factor is high levels of hydrogen dispatchable power plants which brings about a reduced need for renewable and nuclear capacities, while hydrogen storage provides the most flexibility within this pathway.
NESO sees there being four waves of action to drive the transition, the first of which has pretty much unfolded, with the groundwork being laid for the transition through a foundation stage. This is to be followed by an acceleration wave from today through to 2030, which for hydrogen and gaseous fuels is identifying a clear, strategic route for the future of low carbon gaseous fuel infrastructure and initial hydrogen projects beginning operation.
From 2030 to 2040, a growth wave will see momentum built on, clean technologies mainstreamed, infrastructure expanded, and industry transformed. This will mean hydrogen production, transportation and storage infrastructure is expanded, meeting decarbonisation needs across a variety of sectors.
Finally, a horizon wave from 2040 and beyond will see the transition completed, leading to a net zero energy system that is smart, resilient and built for the long-term. This will include gaseous fuel networks being operated safely, secured and effectively, while hydrogen is now being used in sustainable aviation fuel production.
